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Probability of approval

94^%

GSK bepirovirsen

Chronic hepatitis B · NDA · PDUFA 2026-10-26

Until the FDA deadline11d

Base rate95%

Gap−1pts

Read the full forecast

Base 95%

Pending · by date17

5 later decisions ↓

Written down before the FDA speaks.

Every forecast is published and timestamped in advance, then scored when the decision lands.

17 drugs. 12 dates.

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bepirovirsen

Chronic hepatitis B

INO-3107

Recurrent respiratory papillomatosis

mitapivat

Sickle cell disease

IGALMI

Agitation, at-home use

aficamten

Obstructive HCM

ivonescimab

EGFR-mutated lung cancer

deramiocel

Duchenne muscular dystrophy

molgramostim

Autoimmune PAP

BBP-418

Limb-girdle muscular dystrophy 2I

neladalkib

ALK-positive lung cancer

D-PLEX100

Surgical site infection prevention

bezuclastinib

GIST

povetacicept

IgA nephropathy

imsidolimab

generalized pustular psoriasis

relacorilant

Cushing's syndrome

lorundrostat

Uncontrolled or resistant hypertension

relutrigine

SCN2A/SCN8A epileptic encephalopathies

Resolved / on record

0/17

When the results arrive

10/26

10/30

11/01

11/14 ×3

11/22 ×2

11/27 ×2

11/28

11/30 ×2

12/12

12/17

12/22

12/27 Today

Written in advanceThe version that counts is the last one recorded at least two days before the decision date.
Cannot be backdatedEvery forecast carries an OpenTimestamps proof that anyone can verify.
Scored in publicScored by squared error (the Brier score), against simply quoting the base rate.

See the track record