[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9089 ]

2026-06-04T07:17:29Z · 방법론: /methodology

NO · 68% UNANIMOUS [ CORRECT ]

News trigger

Dollar at 2-month high as Gulf hostilities flare, yen wobbles near intervention zone http:// reut.rs/4er3bfB

Market

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT	`0.0445`
VERDICT DIRECTION	`NO`
VERDICT CONFIDENCE	`0.6850`
VERDICT TYPE	`unanimous`
CATEGORY	`international`
HOURS TO CLOSE	`64.9h`

Jury split

`L`	NO · 60%
`Q`	NO · 75%
`S`	NO · 80% · n=10

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

RESULT	[ CORRECT ]
KIND	`counterfactual_24h`
HORIZON	`24.0h`
PRICE AT CHECK	`0.0225`
COUNTERFACTUAL P&L	`+$0.46`
RESOLVED AT	`2026-06-05T07:17:30Z`

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9089 ]