[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9090 ]

2026-06-04T07:17:39Z · 方法论: /methodology

NO · 68% UNANIMOUS [ WRONG ]

News trigger

Dollar at 2-month high as Gulf hostilities flare, yen wobbles near intervention zone http:// reut.rs/4er3bfB

Market

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT	`0.1350`
VERDICT DIRECTION	`NO`
VERDICT CONFIDENCE	`0.6760`
VERDICT TYPE	`unanimous`
CATEGORY	`international`
HOURS TO CLOSE	`256.9h`

Jury split

`L`	NO · 60%
`Q`	NO · 72%
`S`	NO · 80% · n=10

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

RESULT	[ WRONG ]
KIND	`counterfactual_24h`
HORIZON	`24.0h`
PRICE AT CHECK	`0.1350`
COUNTERFACTUAL P&L	`$0.00`
RESOLVED AT	`2026-06-05T07:17:40Z`

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9090 ]