Chinese companies have been discussing arms sales with Iran, plotting to send the weapons through other countries to mask the origins of the
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
| YES PRICE AT VERDICT | 0.0090 |
| VERDICT DIRECTION | NO |
| VERDICT CONFIDENCE | 0.7750 |
| VERDICT TYPE | unanimous |
| CATEGORY | international |
| HOURS TO CLOSE | 27.4h |
L |
NO · 70% |
Q |
NO · 75% |
S |
NO · 100% · n=14 |
Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.
[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]
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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5674 ]