[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9988 ]

2026-06-11T11:15:24Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 86% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

U.S. launches second day of Iran strikes. And, World Cup facts to know before kickoff

npr · ↗ original article

Market

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0505
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.8600
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE84.8h

Jury split

L NO · 75%
Q NO · 95%
S NO · 100% · n=34

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9988 ]