[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9963 ]

2026-06-11T08:51:43Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 89% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Morning news brief

npr · ↗ original article

Market

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0685
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.8875
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE43.3h

Jury split

L NO · 85%
Q NO · 95%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9963 ]