[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9908 ]

2026-06-10T22:57:30Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 88% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

U.S. military says it's striking 'multiple targets' in Iran in 2nd day of renewed fire

npr · ↗ original article

Market

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.1485
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.8800
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE53.3h

Jury split

L NO · 85%
Q NO · 85%
S NO · 100% · n=13

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9908 ]