[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9900 ]

2026-06-10T22:38:47Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 80% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said U.S. forces would ​carry out orders from President Donald Trump and hit Iran hard by bombing 'key fac

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.2050
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.8050
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE125.8h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 85%
S NO · 100% · n=13

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9900 ]