[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9881 ]

2026-06-10T21:21:28Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 66% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad issued a security alert urging American citizens in Iraq to remain on high alert and closely monitor local news

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.2450
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6625
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE126.8h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 60%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9881 ]