[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9863 ]

2026-06-10T19:31:22Z · 방법론: /methodology

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NO · 73% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Israeli strike on a car kills two in Sidon, Lebanon

aljazeera · ↗ original article

Market

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.2550
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7300
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE100.8h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 60%
S NO · 100% · n=11

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9863 ]