[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9861 ]

2026-06-10T19:13:20Z · Methodology: /methodology

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]
NO · 68% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Why Lebanon remains caught up in the Israel-Iran conflict

aljazeera · ↗ original article

Market

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0890
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6750
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE56.8h

Jury split

L NO · 62%
Q NO · 55%
S NO · 100% · n=12

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

—

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]

[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9861 ]