[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9838 ]

2026-06-10T18:28:30Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 50% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Family of Long Island jeweler imprisoned in Iran urgently pleads with Trump for his release: 'Every day matters' https:// trib.al/uu9ZO5d

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.1500
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.5000
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE129.8h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NO · 100% · n=12

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9838 ]