[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9834 ]

2026-06-10T17:23:17Z · 방법론: /methodology

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NO · 36% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

NEW: Trump reveals his one birthday wish is "peace for the world" ahead of his 80th on Sunday.

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.2300
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.3650
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE102.8h

Jury split

L NEUTRAL · 0%
Q NO · 55%
S NO · 100% · n=13

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9834 ]