[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9831 ]

2026-06-10T17:15:04Z · 方法论: /methodology

NO · 64% UNANIMOUS [ WRONG ]

News trigger

Trump, ever the unreliable narrator, is unable to force reality to match his preferred story

Market

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT	`0.1850`
VERDICT DIRECTION	`NO`
VERDICT CONFIDENCE	`0.6450`
VERDICT TYPE	`unanimous`
CATEGORY	`international`
HOURS TO CLOSE	`102.8h`

Jury split

`L`	NO · 60%
`Q`	NO · 72%
`S`	NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

RESULT	[ WRONG ]
KIND	`counterfactual_24h`
HORIZON	`24.0h`
PRICE AT CHECK	`0.2050`
COUNTERFACTUAL P&L	`$-0.49`
RESOLVED AT	`2026-06-11T17:15:05Z`

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9831 ]