‘Palestinian lives are disposable – even a baby’: new footage shows shooting of seven-month-old
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?
| YES PRICE AT VERDICT | 0.0480 |
| VERDICT DIRECTION | NO |
| VERDICT CONFIDENCE | 0.6562 |
| VERDICT TYPE | unanimous |
| CATEGORY | trump_direct |
| HOURS TO CLOSE | 61.8h |
L |
NO · 60% |
Q |
NO · 75% |
S |
NEUTRAL · 0% |
Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.
| RESULT | [ WRONG ] |
| KIND | counterfactual_24h |
| HORIZON | 24.0h |
| PRICE AT CHECK | 0.0645 |
| COUNTERFACTUAL P&L | $-0.35 |
| RESOLVED AT | 2026-06-11T14:14:01Z |
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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9809 ]