[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9737 ]

2026-06-10T09:53:55Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 38% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Exclusive: Trump regulators are proposing new rules on how they will govern the booming prediction markets, with parameters that will contin

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Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0950
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.3750
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE110.3h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9737 ]