[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9717 ]

2026-06-10T07:54:19Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 72% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

The climate phenomenon arrives at a perilous time, with energy markets already strained from disruptions caused by the Iran war.

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.1050
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7250
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE112.3h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 75%
S NO · 100% · n=12

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9717 ]