[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9701 ]

2026-06-10T05:43:58Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 78% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Trita Parsi: Iran is pursuing a doctrine of swift retaliation

aljazeera · ↗ original article

Market

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0495
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7750
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE70.3h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 75%
S NO · 100% · n=11

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9701 ]