[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9689 ]

2026-06-10T03:14:30Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 91% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Middle East crisis live: Iran launches broad retaliatory attacks after US strikes over downed helicopter

guardian · ↗ original article

Market

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0645
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.9100
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE72.8h

Jury split

L NO · 85%
Q NO · 95%
S NO · 100% · n=11

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9689 ]