[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9656 ]

2026-06-09T21:10:15Z · Methodology: /methodology

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]
NO · 66% UNANIMOUS [ WRONG ]

News trigger

Israeli forces kill nine in Tyre after issuing forced displacement orders

aljazeera · ↗ original article

Market

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.2000
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6562
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE122.8h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 75%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

RESULT [ WRONG ]
KINDcounterfactual_24h
HORIZON24.0h
PRICE AT CHECK0.2950
COUNTERFACTUAL P&L$-2.37
RESOLVED AT2026-06-10T21:10:16Z

User votes

—

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]

[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9656 ]