[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9636 ]

2026-06-09T17:41:49Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 72% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

President Trump said the U.S. Apache helicopter that crashed in the Middle East was shot down by Iran, saying the U.S. "must, of necessity,

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.1800
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7250
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE126.3h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 75%
S NO · 100% · n=34

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9636 ]