[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9627 ]

2026-06-09T17:22:59Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 72% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

President Donald Trump on Tuesday said he had been informed by the U.S. military that Iran was responsible for the Apache helicopter that cr

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Market

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.1950
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7160
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE126.8h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 72%
S NO · 100% · n=36

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9627 ]