[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9597 ]

2026-06-09T15:01:37Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 66% UNANIMOUS [ WRONG ]

News trigger

Did Netanyahu really ‘defy’ Trump in bombing Iran?

aljazeera · ↗ original article

Market

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.1050
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6650
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE129.3h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 55%
S NO · 100% · n=34

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

RESULT [ WRONG ]
KINDcounterfactual_24h
HORIZON24.0h
PRICE AT CHECK0.1650
COUNTERFACTUAL P&L$-1.34
RESOLVED AT2026-06-10T15:01:38Z

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9597 ]