"No two human beings, let alone US presidents, could be less alike than Trump and Carter. But they have Iran in common. Once the idea forms
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
| YES PRICE AT VERDICT | 0.0115 |
| VERDICT DIRECTION | NO |
| VERDICT CONFIDENCE | 0.6650 |
| VERDICT TYPE | unanimous |
| CATEGORY | international |
| HOURS TO CLOSE | 132.3h |
L |
NO · 60% |
Q |
NO · 55% |
S |
NO · 100% · n=34 |
Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.
| RESULT | [ CORRECT ] |
| KIND | counterfactual_24h |
| HORIZON | 24.0h |
| PRICE AT CHECK | 0.0065 |
| COUNTERFACTUAL P&L | +$0.10 |
| RESOLVED AT | 2026-06-10T11:49:43Z |
—
[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9576 ]