[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9571 ]

2026-06-09T11:29:51Z · 方法论: /methodology

NO · 64% UNANIMOUS [ WRONG ]

News trigger

Trump is becoming Jimmy Carter

Market

Iran closes its airspace by June 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT	`0.9990`
VERDICT DIRECTION	`NO`
VERDICT CONFIDENCE	`0.6438`
VERDICT TYPE	`unanimous`
CATEGORY	`international`
HOURS TO CLOSE	`132.8h`

Jury split

`L`	NO · 70%
`Q`	NO · 55%
`S`	NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

RESULT	[ WRONG ]
KIND	`counterfactual_24h`
HORIZON	`24.0h`
PRICE AT CHECK	`0.9995`
COUNTERFACTUAL P&L	`$-10.00`
RESOLVED AT	`2026-06-10T11:29:52Z`

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9571 ]