[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9570 ]

2026-06-09T11:29:41Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 71% UNANIMOUS [ CORRECT ]

News trigger

Trump is becoming Jimmy Carter

ft · ↗ original article

Market

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0550
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7075
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE132.8h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 72%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

RESULT [ CORRECT ]
KINDcounterfactual_24h
HORIZON24.0h
PRICE AT CHECK0.0350
COUNTERFACTUAL P&L+$0.42
RESOLVED AT2026-06-10T11:29:42Z

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9570 ]