[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9556 ]

2026-06-09T10:13:33Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 66% UNANIMOUS [ WRONG ]

News trigger

BYD and Alibaba among big names aiding China’s military, Pentagon says

Market

Iran closes its airspace by June 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT	`0.9990`
VERDICT DIRECTION	`NO`
VERDICT CONFIDENCE	`0.6650`
VERDICT TYPE	`unanimous`
CATEGORY	`international`
HOURS TO CLOSE	`133.8h`

Jury split

`L`	NO · 60%
`Q`	NO · 55%
`S`	NO · 100% · n=14

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

RESULT	[ WRONG ]
KIND	`counterfactual_24h`
HORIZON	`24.0h`
PRICE AT CHECK	`0.9995`
COUNTERFACTUAL P&L	`$-10.00`
RESOLVED AT	`2026-06-10T10:13:34Z`

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9556 ]