[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9553 ]

2026-06-09T09:57:08Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 72% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

US forces disabled an unladen oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman after it attempted to sail to an Iranian port in violation of the ongoing block

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.1050
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7250
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE134.3h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 75%
S NO · 100% · n=16

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9553 ]