[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9547 ]

2026-06-09T09:23:54Z · 方法论: /methodology

NO · 66% UNANIMOUS [ CORRECT ]

News trigger

Iran says US has revoked World Cup ticket allocation for their supporters

Market

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT	`0.0550`
VERDICT DIRECTION	`NO`
VERDICT CONFIDENCE	`0.6650`
VERDICT TYPE	`unanimous`
CATEGORY	`international`
HOURS TO CLOSE	`134.8h`

Jury split

`L`	NO · 60%
`Q`	NO · 55%
`S`	NO · 100% · n=35

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

RESULT	[ CORRECT ]
KIND	`counterfactual_24h`
HORIZON	`24.0h`
PRICE AT CHECK	`0.0450`
COUNTERFACTUAL P&L	`+$0.21`
RESOLVED AT	`2026-06-10T09:23:54Z`

User votes

—

[ ← 更早 ] [ 返回列表 ] [ 更新 → ]

[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9547 ]