[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9547 ]

2026-06-09T09:23:54Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 66% UNANIMOUS [ CORRECT ]

News trigger

Iran says US has revoked World Cup ticket allocation for their supporters

aljazeera · ↗ original article

Market

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0550
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6650
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE134.8h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 55%
S NO · 100% · n=35

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

RESULT [ CORRECT ]
KINDcounterfactual_24h
HORIZON24.0h
PRICE AT CHECK0.0450
COUNTERFACTUAL P&L+$0.21
RESOLVED AT2026-06-10T09:23:54Z

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9547 ]