[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9423 ]

2026-06-08T10:58:14Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 66% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Could ex-ISIL fighters be used against Iran, as a Russian official claimed?

aljazeera · ↗ original article

Market

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0550
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6650
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE157.3h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 55%
S NO · 100% · n=34

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9423 ]