[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9419 ]

2026-06-08T10:31:16Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 55% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Residents in Tel Aviv took shelter amid warnings of new strikes by Iran, while In Jerusalem and Haifa, schools stood empty. Israel and Iran

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.4150
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.5500
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE157.8h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NO · 100% · n=36

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9419 ]