[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9329 ]

2026-06-07T22:43:20Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 64% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Gunman kills one, wounds five in drive-by attacks in Israel http:// reut.rs/4dZrock

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.2650
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6428
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE169.3h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 55%
S NO · 89% · n=18

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9329 ]