[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9288 ]

2026-06-07T08:38:00Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 69% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Israel kills Hamas terrorist commander tied to Oct. 7 massacre https:// trib.al/4EFMhAP

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0115
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6900
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE183.8h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 55%
S NO · 88% · n=16

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9288 ]