The European Union has begun work on imposing sanctions on Israel’s national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, over his treatment of activ
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?
| YES PRICE AT VERDICT | 0.9985 |
| VERDICT DIRECTION | NO |
| VERDICT CONFIDENCE | 0.6650 |
| VERDICT TYPE | unanimous |
| CATEGORY | international |
| HOURS TO CLOSE | 32.4h |
L |
NO · 60% |
Q |
NO · 55% |
S |
NO · 100% · n=14 |
Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.
| RESULT | [ WRONG ] |
| KIND | counterfactual_24h |
| HORIZON | 24.0h |
| PRICE AT CHECK | 0.9995 |
| COUNTERFACTUAL P&L | $-13.33 |
| RESOLVED AT | 2026-06-06T15:59:03Z |
—
[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9219 ]