[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9188 ]

2026-06-05T06:19:46Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 78% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Iran war day 98: Tehran raises doubts on deal as Lebanon fighting continues

aljazeera · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0550
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7750
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE41.9h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 75%
S NO · 100% · n=13

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9188 ]