[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9179 ]

2026-06-05T04:19:48Z · 方法论: /methodology

NO · 66% UNANIMOUS [ WRONG ]

News trigger

The teenagers enlisted as agents of mayhem by Russia and Iran

Market

Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT	`0.9985`
VERDICT DIRECTION	`NO`
VERDICT CONFIDENCE	`0.6650`
VERDICT TYPE	`unanimous`
CATEGORY	`international`
HOURS TO CLOSE	`43.9h`

Jury split

`L`	NO · 60%
`Q`	NO · 55%
`S`	NO · 100% · n=33

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

RESULT	[ WRONG ]
KIND	`counterfactual_24h`
HORIZON	`24.0h`
PRICE AT CHECK	`0.9985`
COUNTERFACTUAL P&L	`$-0.00`
RESOLVED AT	`2026-06-06T04:19:48Z`

User votes

—

[ ← 更早 ] [ 返回列表 ] [ 更新 → ]

[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9179 ]