[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9164 ]

2026-06-04T19:19:03Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 77% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

JUST IN: U.S. State Department renews "Level 4 - Do Not Travel" advisory for Iran, Iraq, Syria, Yemen & Gaza.

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.1350
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7660
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE244.9h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 72%
S NO · 100% · n=34

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9164 ]