[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9132 ]

2026-06-04T13:31:42Z · 방법론: /methodology

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NO · 20% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Tom Lee’s $250,000 ether target: Here’s what math says about this crazy prediction

coindesk · ↗ original article

Market

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.1450
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.2000
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE250.9h

Jury split

L NEUTRAL · 0%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NO · 100% · n=12

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9132 ]