[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9072 ]

2026-06-04T00:27:11Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 72% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Japan sees shortage of plastic bags, trays and gloves, as Iran war-induced naphtha shortage worsens

guardian · ↗ original article

Market

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.1450
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7250
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE263.9h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 75%
S NO · 100% · n=33

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9072 ]