[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9055 ]

2026-06-03T20:56:18Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 80% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

JUST IN: Trump announces "we will go get" Iran's enriched uranium in the near future.

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Iran closes its airspace by June 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.1425
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.8050
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE267.4h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 85%
S NO · 100% · n=34

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9055 ]