Pete Hegseth removes all women and some Black service members from navy promotion list
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
| YES PRICE AT VERDICT | 0.0340 |
| VERDICT DIRECTION | NO |
| VERDICT CONFIDENCE | 0.6562 |
| VERDICT TYPE | unanimous |
| CATEGORY | international |
| HOURS TO CLOSE | 76.9h |
L |
NO · 60% |
Q |
NO · 75% |
S |
NEUTRAL · 0% |
Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.
| RESULT | [ WRONG ] |
| KIND | counterfactual_24h |
| HORIZON | 24.0h |
| PRICE AT CHECK | 0.0410 |
| COUNTERFACTUAL P&L | $-0.14 |
| RESOLVED AT | 2026-06-04T19:12:15Z |
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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9044 ]