[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9041 ]

2026-06-03T18:28:14Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 78% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Trump’s Iran war drains US oil supplies to lowest level since 2004

ft · ↗ original article

Market

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0355
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7850
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE77.9h

Jury split

L NO · 72%
Q NO · 75%
S NO · 100% · n=34

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9041 ]