[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9039 ]

2026-06-03T18:09:44Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 77% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Israeli strikes kill nine in Lebanon as Hezbollah fires rockets over border

bbc · ↗ original article

Market

Iran closes its airspace by June 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.1395
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7660
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE269.9h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 72%
S NO · 100% · n=12

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9039 ]