[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9015 ]

2026-06-03T13:44:47Z · 方法论: /methodology

NO · 66% UNANIMOUS [ WRONG ]

News trigger

Iran’s World Cup squad to depart for Mexico on June 6 despite US visa delay

Market

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT	`0.0345`
VERDICT DIRECTION	`NO`
VERDICT CONFIDENCE	`0.6550`
VERDICT TYPE	`unanimous`
CATEGORY	`international`
HOURS TO CLOSE	`274.4h`

Jury split

`L`	NO · 58%
`Q`	NO · 55%
`S`	NO · 100% · n=33

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

RESULT	[ WRONG ]
KIND	`counterfactual_24h`
HORIZON	`24.0h`
PRICE AT CHECK	`0.0355`
COUNTERFACTUAL P&L	`$-0.02`
RESOLVED AT	`2026-06-04T13:44:48Z`

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9015 ]