[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-9010 ]

2026-06-03T13:27:54Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 58% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

At least one person was killed and more than 60 were injured after Iran launched missiles and drones at Kuwait and Bahrain overnight. CENTCO

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0055
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.5813
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYfed_policy
HOURS TO CLOSE322.9h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 55%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-9010 ]