Trump threatens tariffs on 60 countries including UK and Canada over ‘forced labour’
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
| YES PRICE AT VERDICT | 0.0340 |
| VERDICT DIRECTION | NO |
| VERDICT CONFIDENCE | 0.6650 |
| VERDICT TYPE | unanimous |
| CATEGORY | international |
| HOURS TO CLOSE | 277.9h |
L |
NO · 60% |
Q |
NO · 55% |
S |
NO · 100% · n=13 |
Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.
| RESULT | [ CORRECT ] |
| KIND | counterfactual_24h |
| HORIZON | 24.0h |
| PRICE AT CHECK | 0.0325 |
| COUNTERFACTUAL P&L | +$0.03 |
| RESOLVED AT | 2026-06-04T10:27:22Z |
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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8984 ]