[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-8978 ]

2026-06-03T10:06:22Z · 方法论: /methodology

[ ← 更早 ] [ 返回列表 ] [ 更新 → ]
NO · 70% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Trump confirms he told Netanyahu he's 'f-king crazy,' but they work well together as 'wartime president' and 'wartime prime minister' https

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0320
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6983
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE86.4h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 75%
S NO · 87% · n=15

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

—

[ ← 更早 ] [ 返回列表 ] [ 更新 → ]

[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8978 ]