[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-8961 ]

2026-06-03T08:39:00Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 72% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Restoring free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has been a key sticking point in peace talks between the US and Iran. Here's what to

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Market

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0340
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7150
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE279.4h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 55%
S NO · 100% · n=36

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8961 ]