[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-8928 ]

2026-06-03T01:31:15Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 80% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

US says it attacked Iran’s Qeshm Island; Tehran targets Kuwait, Bahrain

aljazeera · ↗ original article

Market

Iran closes its airspace by June 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.1510
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.8050
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE286.9h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 85%
S NO · 100% · n=34

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8928 ]